Bjorn Hanson, a principal at PricewaterhouseCoopers, forecasts that growth in per capita demand among business travelers will increase only 0.8 percent this year, after rises of 3.4 percent in 2004 and 2.6 percent in 2005.

Mr. Hanson says the numbers indicate that “the industry is entering the mature phase of this cycle.” He also forecasts that per capita demand for hotel rooms among leisure travelers, which rose 2 percent in 2004 and 0.5 percent in 2005, will decline 0.3 percent this year.

Steven Kent, lodging analyst at Goldman Sachs, has reduced his rating on hotel stocks from attractive to neutral because, he wrote in a report last month, growth in revenue for each available room will slow down next year. His prediction is based in part on forecasts of a broader pause in the economy. “There are early indications that supply will begin to increase,” he said, “and the stocks have had a good run in their fourth year of positive outperformance.”

Although other industry analysts and hotel companies remain quite bullish about the companies’ prospects - suggesting they count on business travelers’ continued willingness to pay high rates - Marriott acknowledges that it cannot predict the booking and spending habits of individual business travelers like Mr. Moran and his colleagues.

Mr. Hanson noted that “demand growth continues to exceed increases in supply.” But he cited factors leading to slower growth in demand among business travelers, including stricter corporate policies and heightened traveler concerns about airport security.

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