Growth will resume in 2010, at 5.5%, as consumer spending recovers from the recession. By 2011, eMarketer expects pent-up demand to accelerate growth, peaking in 2012. Retail e-commerce sales will continue to increase, but the rate of growth will fall off in 2013, continuing the pre-recession trend of strong but slowing growth.

Previously, eMarketer projected flat growth for retail e-commerce, expecting declines in the first half of the year followed by second-half recovery. But August figures from the US Department of Commerce (DOC) show sales decreased more than expected in Q2, falling 4.5% year over year to $30.77 billion.