Online-travel-agency commissions are rising. Higher minimum wage is getting more prevalent as the Democrats push their agenda. Increased regulations cause rising costs, and as occupancy declines it will be difficult, if not impossible, to raise average daily rate. It is a natural law that when occupancy declines, hoteliers lower rates, especially as more new product and Airbnb cut more deeply into market share. The party is over. Hotel values will decline in 2016. It took eight years for inflation-adjusted NOI and values to recover to 2007 levels. That is worst performance compared to all property types and far worse than the earnings recovery of the S&P 500, and it took eight years to get back to the base line. And now values will decline as NOI decreases, lending becomes much more costly and leverage levels decline, as the regulators step up pressure on banks to reduce risk on commercial real estate. You might have labeled me Dr. Doom, but the black swans are on your roof, and you failed to notice. The “golden age” ended in the fall of 2015. Five-percent RevPAR increases are history now. Get the full story at Hotel News Now