The U.S. dollar has lost around 20% of its value versus the euro over the past two years. Some pundits expect a recent dollar rebound to continue. Others say it's only a brief respite as the dollar's purchasing power continues to erode.

Given that uncertainty, what's a stock investor to do? Well, there's one U.S. industry that is likely to do well no matter which way the dollar moves: tourism.

The less valuable the dollar, the more expensive it is for U.S. residents to travel overseas. Simply put, a 20% drop in the dollar against the euro makes a European vacation 20% more costly. For many, a dollar that buys 20% less than it did a year ago means that trip to Paris can wait. But that doesn't mean folks won't take vacations this year. They'll just go somewhere in the United States instead.

That reasoning works in reverse for Europeans. The United States is a favorite destination anyway, and now they can visit favored spots such as Las Vegas or San Francisco at fire-sale prices.

If the dollar resumes its decline, more U.S. residents will vacation here and more visitors will come from overseas. If the dollar rebounds, the industry should benefit from a strengthening U.S. economy.

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